Villarreal vs Elche prediction
La LigaRound 9Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal16:15
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ElcheMost likelyVillarreal win · 63%
Best price1.51 Onexbet
Prediction
63%1Villarrealmarket 66%
21%XDrawmarket 20%
16%2Elchemarket 14%
Villarreal-3.0 ppDraw+1.7 ppElche+1.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Villarrealpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 10% more than the typical book | Elchepays 12% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.90 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.55 |
| Onexbet | 1.51best | 4.88 | 6.73best |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.97best | 6.23 |
| Sbo | 1.41 | 4.33 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Villarreal at 1.51 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Villarreal
- L0-1RM
- W3-1LEV
- W3-1MAL
- L1-2RB
- L2-3BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Elche
- D0-0CV
- W3-1ESP
- L2-3RM
- D1-1AC
- L2-3RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Villarreal
No reported absences.
Elche
No reported absences.
Head to head
Villarreal 2Draws 0Elche 0
- VIL 2-1 ELC
- ELC 1-3 VIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Villarreal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.07last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Elche
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.51last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 15.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Line movement
Villarreal—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Elche—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Villarreal result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.68What's at stake (home)0.02League id140Attacking xG form (home)2.29Goal drought (home)1.00Rest-days edge0.71
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.