Villarreal vs Napoli prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 2Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal21:00
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NapoliMost likelyVillarreal win · 42%
Best price2.29 Onexbet
Prediction
42%1Villarrealmarket 45%
26%XDrawmarket 25%
32%2Napolimarket 30%
Villarreal-3.0 ppDraw+0.9 ppNapoli+2.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Villarrealpays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Napolipays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.90best | 3.00 |
| Betvictor | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.62 | 3.14 |
| Onexbet | 2.29best | 3.72 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.86 | 3.24best |
| Sbo | 2.12 | 3.26 | 2.84 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Villarreal at 2.29 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Villarreal
- L0-1RM
- W3-1LEV
- W3-1MAL
- L1-2RB
- L2-3BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Napoli
- W3-0FRO
- D1-1FIO
- W1-0BOL
- L0-1ARS
- L2-3INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Villarreal
No reported absences.
Napoli
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Villarreal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.07last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.87last 4
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Daniel Siebert
- Yellows / game
- 4.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Line movement
Villarreal—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Villarreal result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)5.98League id2.00Recent form (home)4.05Attacking xG form (away)4.99Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-37.1Pi-rating edge-0.02
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.