Villarreal vs Real Sociedad prediction
La LigaRound 15Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Real SociedadMost likelyVillarreal win · 46%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Villarreal win
Oddbert gives Villarreal a 46% chance of winning.
46%Villarreal
25%Draw
29%Real Sociedad
In 100 matches like this, Villarreal would win about 46. In the other 54 or so, Villarreal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Villarreal win 46, Draw 25, Real Sociedad win 29.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
46%1VillarrealVillarreal win
25%XDrawDraw
29%2Real SociedadReal Sociedad win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Villarreal meet Real Sociedad. The model leans toward Villarreal, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Villarreal (46%), doesn't happen in about 54 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Villarreal
- W2-0GET
- L0-6PSG
- L0-1ESP
- W2-1VAL
- L3-4LIV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Sociedad
- W1-0RV
- D1-1LYO
- L1-2AC
- W2-1LEV
- W6-0LIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Villarreal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Real Sociedad
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Villarreal 2Draws 1Real Sociedad 1
- VIL 3-1 RS
- RS 2-3 VIL
- VIL 2-2 RS
- RS 1-0 VIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Villarreal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.84last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.21last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- Alberto Moleiro2G 3A10 apps
- Ayoze Pérez1G 4A10 apps
- G. Mikautadze4G 0A10 apps
Real Sociedad
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- O. Óskarsson5G 0A9 apps
- Mikel Oyarzabal2G 3A9 apps
- L. Sučić4G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 24,500
Line movement
Villarreal—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Sociedad—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Villarreal, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Expected goals (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)1.45Expected goals (home)2.37Away form (away)6.07Fixture congestion (home)0.00Expected goals (away)1.30What's at stake (away)0.04
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.