Vitória SC vs Estrela prediction
Primeira LigaRound 12
Vitória SC21:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
EstrelaMost likelyVitória SC win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Vitória SC win
Oddbert gives Vitória SC a 56% chance of winning.
56%Vitória SC
21%Draw
23%Estrela
In 100 matches like this, Vitória SC would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Vitória SC doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Vitória SC win 56, Draw 21, Estrela win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1Vitória SCVitória SC win
21%XDrawDraw
23%2EstrelaEstrela win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Vitória SC (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Vitória SC
- L1-2FP
- D0-0GV
- W5-0MAR
- L0-2BEN
- D1-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Estrela
- L2-3BEN
- L1-2MOR
- L0-2CP
- L0-1ARO
- L0-2AV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Vitória SC
Absence data is not available for this match.
Estrela
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Vitória SC 3Draws 1Estrela 0
- VS 2-1 EST
- EST 0-2 VS
- VS 2-0 EST
- EST 2-2 VS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Vitória SC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 16.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 9
Key players
- Alan1G 2A5 apps
- Miguel Nogueira0G 3A8 apps
- A. Jakupovic2G 0A7 apps
Estrela
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.21last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- A. Marcus4G 1A10 apps
- L. Antonetti4G 1A10 apps
- I. Stoica4G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Vitória SC—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Estrela—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Vitória SC result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and Away form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)0.90Away form (away)2.74What's at stake (away)0.28League id94.0Pi-rating edge0.56Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)173
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.