Wales vs Portugal prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Wales20:45
Tue 17 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PortugalMost likelyPortugal win · 74%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Portugal win
Oddbert gives Portugal a 74% chance of winning.
11%Wales
15%Draw
74%Portugal
In 100 matches like this, Portugal would win about 74. In the other 26 or so, Portugal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Wales win 11, Draw 15, Portugal win 74.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1WalesWales winmarket 9%
15%XDrawDrawmarket 15%
74%2PortugalPortugal winmarket 76%
Our model vs market
Wales +0.9 ppDraw +0.9 ppPortugal -1.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Portugal (74%), doesn't happen in about 26 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Wales
- L0-1DEN
- W2-1NOR
- L0-2DEN
- L0-1POR
- L1-2ROM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Portugal
- W2-1NOR
- W4-2DEN
- W2-1NOR
- W1-0WAL
- L0-1SPA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Wales
Absence data is not available for this match.
Portugal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Wales 0Draws 0Portugal 2
- POR 1-0 WAL
- POR 2-0 WAL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Wales
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
- D. James3G 2A9 apps
- H. Wilson3G 1A3 apps
- D. Brooks2G 0A7 apps
Portugal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
- Gonçalo Ramos4G 1A7 apps
- João Félix3G 1A8 apps
- João Cancelo2G 2A10 apps
Line movement
Wales—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Portugal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Portugal result here; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1959Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.