Washington Spirit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W prediction
NWSL WomenRound Group Stage
Washington Spirit W18:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NJ/NY Gotham FC WMost likelyWashington Spirit W win · 36%
Best price2.61 Pinnacle
Prediction
36%1Washington Spirit Wmarket 36%
30%XDrawmarket 28%
34%2NJ/NY Gotham FC Wmarket 36%
Our model vs market
Washington Spirit W -0.5 ppDraw +2.1 ppNJ/NY Gotham FC W -1.6 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Stale predictionPrediction as of 13 Oct 2026Predictions for this league are paused — this is the last one we made, not a live call.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Washington Spirit Wpays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | NJ/NY Gotham FC Wpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.15 | 2.57best |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Betvictor | 2.38 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.46 |
| Onexbet | 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61best | 3.22best | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
This prediction is stale (paused league or not refreshed), so we size nothing on it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Washington Spirit W
- W3-2HDW
- L0-1ACW
- W3-0CRS
- L0-3BLW
- W2-1PTW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
- D1-1ACW
- W3-1CRS
- W2-1NCC
- W2-1RLW
- L0-3DSW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Washington Spirit W
No reported absences.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
No reported absences.
Head to head
Washington Spirit W 2Draws 3NJ/NY Gotham FC W 4
- NGF 1-0 WSW
- WSW 0-1 NGF
- NGF 0-0 WSW
- WSW 0-3 NGF
- WSW 1-1 NGF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Washington Spirit W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Line movement
Washington Spirit W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
NJ/NY Gotham FC W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Washington Spirit W result here, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Expected goals (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)0.91Expected goals (away)0.89Goal correlation0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.