Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction
BundesligaRound 6
Werder Bremen15:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SC Paderborn 07Most likelyWerder Bremen win · 51%
Best price1.84 Onexbet
Prediction
51%1Werder Bremenmarket 54%
25%XDrawmarket 23%
24%2SC Paderborn 07market 23%
Werder Bremen-3.0 ppDraw+1.1 ppSC Paderborn 07+1.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Werder Bremenpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 10% more than the typical book | SC Paderborn 07pays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Betvictor | 1.73 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| Onexbet | 1.84best | 4.26 | 4.21best |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.29best | 4.11 |
| Sbo | 1.79 | 3.53 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Werder Bremen at 1.84 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Werder Bremen
- D2-2BD
- W3-2FA
- D1-11FK
- W3-1RL
- L1-4SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Paderborn 07
- L0-2VS
- W3-11H
- L0-3BD
- L0-1SF
- D0-0FM0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Werder Bremen
No reported absences.
SC Paderborn 07
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Werder Bremen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
SC Paderborn 07
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 7
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 7
- xG for / game
- 0.92last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.64last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 7
- BTTS
- 2 / 7
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 7
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 7
- Shots
- 16.0last 7
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 7
- Fouls
- 11.0last 7
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 7
Line movement
Werder Bremen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SC Paderborn 07—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Werder Bremen result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)2.68Pi-rating edge-0.18Attacking xG form (home)2.40Attacking xG form (away)0.92Rest-days edge0.79League id78.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.