Wolves vs Bolton prediction
ChampionshipRound 10Molineux Stadium
Wolves20:45
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
BoltonMost likelyWolves win · 67%
Best price1.44 Dafabet
Prediction
67%1Wolvesmarket 69%
20%XDrawmarket 19%
13%2Boltonmarket 12%
Wolves-3.0 ppDraw+1.5 ppBolton+1.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Wolvespays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Boltonpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50best |
| Dafabet | 1.44best | 5.00best | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.85 | 7.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.38 | 4.85 | 7.19 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.88 | 7.01 |
| Sbo | 1.36 | 4.17 | 5.90 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Wolves at 1.44 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Wolves
- L0-1MID
- W1-0WB
- W1-0SU
- D2-2BIR
- L2-4WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bolton
- L1-2SC
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0CAR
- L2-3WH
- L0-4MIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Wolves
No reported absences.
Bolton
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Wolves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Bolton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 9
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 9
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.61last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 9
- BTTS
- 5 / 9
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 9
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 9
- Shots
- 14.2last 9
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 9
- Fouls
- 10.7last 9
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Referee profile
- Referee
- Tim Robinson
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Line movement
Wolves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bolton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Wolves result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Away form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.51Away form (away)3.64Pi-rating edge-0.16Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)141Home advantage (team-tuned)22.4League id40.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.