Wolves vs Derby prediction
ChampionshipRound 17
Wolves21:00
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
DerbyMost likelyWolves win · 59%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Wolves win
Oddbert gives Wolves a 59% chance of winning.
59%Wolves
22%Draw
19%Derby
In 100 matches like this, Wolves would win about 59. In the other 41 or so, Wolves doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Wolves win 59, Draw 22, Derby win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
59%1WolvesWolves win
22%XDrawDraw
19%2DerbyDerby win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Wolves (59%), doesn't happen in about 41 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Wolves
- D1-1WRE
- W2-1BC
- W3-0CAR
- W1-0WAT
- D1-1POR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Derby
- W3-1BOL
- L0-4NOR
- L1-4MIL
- D1-1SU
- L0-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Wolves
Absence data is not available for this match.
Derby
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Wolves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Fer López3G 1A9 apps
- A. Armstrong3G 0A8 apps
- S. Neave2G 1A7 apps
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.15last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.73last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- M. Fuseini1G 2A9 apps
- B. Clark2G 0A10 apps
- S. Szmodics1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Wolves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Wolves result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.65Pi-rating edge0.21What's at stake (away)0.12Expected goals (home)2.01What's at stake (home)0.10Expected goals (away)0.87
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.