Wolves vs Southampton prediction
ChampionshipRound 19
Wolves16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SouthamptonMost likelySouthampton win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Southampton win
Oddbert gives Southampton a 41% chance of winning.
38%Wolves
21%Draw
41%Southampton
In 100 matches like this, Southampton would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Southampton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Wolves win 38, Draw 21, Southampton win 41.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
38%1WolvesWolves win
21%XDrawDraw
41%2SouthamptonSouthampton win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Southampton (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Wolves
- D1-1WRE
- W2-1BC
- W3-0CAR
- W1-0WAT
- D1-1POR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Southampton
- L0-1PRE
- D1-1WB
- W4-1QPR
- W3-2WH
- D0-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Wolves
Absence data is not available for this match.
Southampton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Wolves 2Draws 0Southampton 0
- SOU 1-2 WOL
- WOL 2-0 SOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Wolves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Fer López3G 1A9 apps
- A. Armstrong3G 0A8 apps
- S. Neave2G 1A7 apps
Southampton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 8.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- K. Matsuki4G 1A10 apps
- F. Azaz2G 3A10 apps
- C. Larin3G 0A6 apps
Line movement
Wolves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Southampton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Southampton result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-97.4Expected goals (away)1.33What's at stake (home)0.16Home advantage (team-tuned)24.8Attacking xG form (away)1.53What's at stake (away)0.08
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.