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Portugal

Primeira Liga

Calibrated predictions and our model's track record in Primeira Liga.

Model performance

Model RPS0.4216lower is better
Market RPS0.4324lower is better
RPS delta-1.08 ppnot proven — too few graded rows to test
Graded vs closing line1settled predictions with a logged closing line — the rows the RPS pair is scored on
Mean CLV+0.0 pp
Positive CLV0%
Settled predictions2

Performance is measured across all settled predictions and reproducible on the public track record. Transparency

Upcoming

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFri 23 Oct, 21:45
Vitória SCVitória SCvMaritimoMaritimo

Most likely

Vitória SC win

49% chance

Best price

1.79

Onexbet

149%
X27%
224%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSat 24 Oct, 16:30
AlvercaAlvercavAroucaArouca

Toss-up

Alverca win

40% chance

Best price

2.26

Onexbet

140%
X28%
232%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSat 24 Oct, 16:30
EstrelaEstrelavCasa PiaCasa Pia

Most likely

Estrela win

49% chance

Best price

1.90

Onexbet

149%
X27%
224%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSat 24 Oct, 21:30
GIL VicenteGIL VicentevFC PortoFC Porto

Most likely

FC Porto win

65% chance

Best price

1.48

Onexbet

114%
X21%
265%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 16:30
EstorilEstorilvMoreirenseMoreirense

Most likely

Estoril win

47% chance

Best price

1.98

Onexbet

147%
X27%
226%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 19:00
NacionalNacionalvSC BragaSC Braga

Most likely

SC Braga win

62% chance

Best price

1.53

Onexbet

116%
X22%
262%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 19:00
Rio AveRio AvevFamalicaoFamalicao

Most likely

Famalicao win

48% chance

Best price

1.93

Betano

125%
X26%
249%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 21:30
Sporting CPSporting CPvAcademico ViseuAcademico Viseu

Most likely

Sporting CP win

80% chance

Best price

1.18

William Hill

180%
X13%
27%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 65%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaMon 26 Oct, 19:45
Santa ClaraSanta ClaravBenficaBenfica

Most likely

Benfica win

66% chance

Best price

1.46

Onexbet

113%
X20%
267%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFri 30 Oct, 21:15
Casa PiaCasa PiavSporting CPSporting CP

Most likely

Sporting CP win

71% chance

112%
X17%
271%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 65%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSat 31 Oct, 16:30
MoreirenseMoreirensevEstrelaEstrela

Most likely

Moreirense win

47% chance

147%
X27%
226%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSat 31 Oct, 21:30
FC PortoFC PortovEstorilEstoril

Most likely

FC Porto win

79% chance

179%
X15%
26%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Recent

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFinal
FamalicaoFamalicao1–4AlvercaAlverca

Before kick-off, most likely

Famalicao win

49% chance

149%
X28%
223%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFinal
AroucaArouca1–0EstrelaEstrela

Before kick-off, most likely

Arouca win

58% chance

158%
X22%
220%

Prediction as of 11 Oct 2026