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France

Ligue 1

Calibrated predictions and our model's track record in Ligue 1.

Model performance

Model RPS—lower is better
Market RPS—lower is better
RPS delta—not enough settled data yet
Graded vs closing line0settled predictions with a logged closing line — the rows the RPS pair is scored on
Mean CLV—
Positive CLV—
Settled predictions1

Performance is measured across all settled predictions and reproducible on the public track record. Transparency

Upcoming

Ligue 1Ligue 1Fri 16 Oct, 20:45
Le MansLe MansvToulouseToulouse

Toss-up

Toulouse win

44% chance

Best price

2.45

Onexbet

129%
X27%
244%
BTTSBTTS yes 62%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 17:15
StrasbourgStrasbourgvParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain

Biggest price gap

Paris Saint Germain win

67% chance

Best price

1.46

Onexbet

1.1 pts better than market
115%
X18%
267%
BTTSBTTS yes 62%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 20:45
LilleLillevStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Most likely

Lille win

53% chance

Best price

1.81

Marathonbet

153%
X27%
220%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 20:45
Estac TroyesEstac TroyesvLensLens

Most likely

Lens win

55% chance

Best price

1.87

Onexbet

120%
X25%
255%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 64%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 15:00
AngersAngersvMarseilleMarseille

Toss-up

Marseille win

45% chance

Best price

2.28

Onexbet

129%
X27%
244%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 17:15
Paris FCParis FCvRennesRennes

Biggest price gap

Rennes win

33% chance

Best price

3.28

Onexbet

1.3 pts better than market
139%
X28%
233%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 17:15
Le HavreLe HavrevAuxerreAuxerre

Toss-up

Auxerre win

36% chance

Best price

3.00

Onexbet

136%
X27%
237%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 17:15
LorientLorientvMonacoMonaco

Toss-up

Monaco win

44% chance

Best price

2.10

Onexbet

129%
X27%
244%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 20:45
LyonLyonvNiceNice

Most likely

Lyon win

55% chance

Best price

1.71

Onexbet

155%
X26%
219%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Fri 23 Oct, 20:45
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29vNiceNice

Toss-up

Stade Brestois 29 win

45% chance

Best price

2.31

Onexbet

145%
X28%
227%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sat 24 Oct, 17:15
ToulouseToulousevEstac TroyesEstac Troyes

Most likely

Toulouse win

54% chance

Best price

1.75

Onexbet

154%
X26%
220%
BTTSBTTS yes 60%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 63%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Ligue 1Ligue 1Sat 24 Oct, 20:45
LensLensvParis FCParis FC

Most likely

Lens win

47% chance

Best price

2.09

Onexbet

147%
X28%
225%
BTTSBTTS yes 61%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61%

Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026

Recent

Ligue 1Ligue 1Final
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes0–2MarseilleMarseille

Before kick-off, most likely

Estac Troyes win

46% chance

146%
X23%
231%

Prediction as of 11 Oct 2026